Oscars95: Predictions, Nominee Surprises and Disappointments

There is nothing I love more than movies. A good movie can be an escape for a couple hours, something to talk about and share ; a great movie will captivate and take me somewhere I didn’t realize I needed to go. A bad movie will disappoint to a level I can’t stop talking about how much I was disappointed; a horrible movie can come back full circle and provide endless entertainment in unexpected ways.
With this love of movies comes excitement for Oscar Season! Of course I have to get in on providing my predictions, biggest surprises in movies nominated or left off, and my personal disappointments. So lets buckle in for some Oscars95 (not Oscars ’95)preshow.

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick
Winner– Avatar: The Way of Water
It’s pretty much the only reason this movie exists- to be a visual wonder.


• Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
Winner– Everything Everywhere All at Once
With the most nominations this year (11), expect to see a couple wins.


• Babylon
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Winner– Elvis
This film is having a resurgence in talk after a strong opening. This might be it’s only chance at a win, though. Plus, Catherine Martin has been nominated three times this year!!! She’s getting one.


• All Quite on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Elvis
• The Whale
Winner– Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
There’s no clear standout or movie that falls behind in this category. Just a gut check guess.


• Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
• Elvis
• Empire of Light
• Tár
Winner– All Quiet on the Western Front
Disappointment– While I can’t say any of these did less than a fantastic job, there were no movies this year that WOWed me in this category. There’s usually one or two that leave me amazed or wondering how they did what they did.


• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans
Winner– Babylon
Is there such a thing as a sure bet at the Oscars? La La Land, I’m asking you.


• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
Winner– Top Gun: Maverick
I flipped a coin- a three-sided coin.


• “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
• “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
• “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Winner– “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Remember the awesome Oscars performances of “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman and “Blame Canada” from South Park : Bigger, Longer & Uncut by Robin Williams? Remember the joy we had when those songs won the Oscar too? (where’s my sarcasm font when I need it?) They can’t possibly make that mistake again, can they? They won’t, right? They’re going to get it right this time, aren’t they? *sigh* Oh well, maybe next year.
Surprise– No Tay Tay.


• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
Winner– The Fabelmans
This award will be named after John Williams one day- for a reason.


• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red
Winner– Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Disney’s reign is over. Plus, who would have guessed (before they saw the movies) that there would be no Pinocchio, Lightyear, Strange World, Bad Guys, or even Luck on this list? By the way, my personal pick would go to Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. Fingers crossed.


• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion: A knives Out Mystery
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
Winner– Women Talking
Women Talking has two nominations, with the other in the Best Picture category. It’s not going to win Best Picture. It’s got a shot here.
Surprise– No The Whale. I expected more nominations. This isn’t the biggest category it was left off, but still some question marks.
Disappointment– Where the Crawdad’s Sing


• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness
Winner– The Fabelmans
A semi-autobiographical on one of the best film directors of all-time. Those old white dude’s in Hollywood are going for this (in an otherwise 4-way tie, no offense Triangles of Sadness).


• Hong Chau — The Whale
• Kerry Condon — The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis — Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Stephanie Hsu — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Winner– Angela Bassett — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This could be considered a career victory. No clear winner here, and can you believe Angela Bassett has never won an Oscar? Is this her best performance? FAR from it.
Fun Fact 1– Stephanie Hsu, Hong Chau, along with upcoming Ke Huy Quan and Michelle Yeoh marks the first time Asian actors are nominated across multiple acting categories.
Fun Fact 2– Angela Bassett is the first acting nomination from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.


• Brian Tyree Henry — Causeway
• Judd Hirsch — The Fabelmans
• Barry Koeghan — The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Winner– Brendan Gleeson — The Banshees of Inisherin
Surprise– Brian Tyree Henry. I didn’t think he would get a nomination. Does he deserve one? Hell yes he does. He’s my personal pick from this list of nominations.
Disappointment– David Strathairn, Garret Dillahunt, Sterling Macer Jr. all from Where the Crawdads Sing.
Fun Fact– Judd Hirsch was last nominated for Ordinary People in 1981, over four decades ago. That’s the first time that has happened.


• Cate Blanchett — Tár
• Ana de Armas — Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough — To Leslie
• Michelle Williams — The Fabelmans
Winner– Michelle Yeoh — Everything Everywhere All at Once
One of the biggest movies of the year = multiple victories in the big four categories.
Disappointment 1– Daisy Edgar-Jones is the biggest reason you see Where the Crawdads Sing pop up so much on here.
Disappointment 2– Andrea Riseborough might be the most deserving to win “loser” at the Oscars this year.
Fun Fact– Michelle Yeoh is the first Asian woman to be nominated in this category.


• Austin Butler — Elvis
• Colin Farrell — The Banshees of Inisherin
• Paul Mescal — Aftersun
• Bill Nighy — Living
Winner– Brendan Fraser — The Whale
Not even close. That’s not a slight on the others. This was the biggest emotional ride in cinema this year. Welcome back Brendan Fraser.
Disappointment– The Whale was done so well, it’s often difficult to watch. My theater experience could very well be the only time I watch this fantastic performance.
Fun Fact– All the nominees for Best Actor are first time nominees. That hasn’t happened since Oscars7!


• Martin McDonagh — The Banshees of Inisherin
• Steven Spielberg — The Fabelmans
• Todd Field — Tár
• Ruben Östlund — Triangle of Sadness
Winner– Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert — Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Did I spoil it earlier in the Best Actress category? At least partially.


• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking
Winner– The Banshees of Inisherin
The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once have the most momentum going in. Banshees was only getting one of the big four, where EEAO has two. That was my deciding factor. All Quiet on the Western Front is getting a late push. Elvis had a strong opening. Tár and The Fabelmans could be sneaky picks as well.
No matter what name is read off first, give them a minute before cheering or booing. Best Picture is up in the air almost every year, but this year more than most.
Surprise– The Whale. Really thought that would be nominated.
Disappointment– Where the Crawdads Sing
Fun Fact– For the first time, two movies breaking the $1 billion mark get nominated together for best picture. They are also the first time two sequels were nominated in one year. (Top Gun & Avatar)


More on Where the Crawdads Sing
I get it; it bombed with the critics. It was received good, not great with the audience. What I don’t get was why with everyone maundering on for both new ideas in Hollywood yet wanting movies to be as “good as they used to be,” we get two sequels that each make over $1 billion box office and this movie that is a throwback to a 50’s Courtroom Drama gets trashed.
Where The Crawdads Sing is my second favorite movie from 2022. However, 2022 was a fairly shit year for movies. You won’t catch me campaigning for movies this year like I have in the past. But Daisy Edgar-Jones put in a performance that I’ll now go see other movies just because she’s in it. David Strathairn is the reason I can get away with calling this a throwback to a 50’s Courtroom Drama. Garret Dillahunt is the best at playing a character you hate. He so perfectly sets up the whole mood of the film and makes you uneasy toward anyone else that pops up in the story. Sterling Macer Jr and Michael Hyatt play roles that give you hope for humanity. They provide all the heart for the film.
Yes, I like the performances much better than the movie itself. And yes, the two male leads drag the movie down in the depths of fire.
While I’m not at all surprised this received 0 nominations (well, outside “Carolina” not getting a song nom), I am a bit disappointed. And really, that’s one of my favorite things about movies- There’s something from this one particular movie that reached me, it meant something to me, and it’s okay if it doesn’t do the same for you, because there’s one out there that, maybe I can’t connect with, but will mean everything to you.